The fragmentation of the MAS and the new political geography in Bolivia

Abstract

This commentary analyzes the Bolivian political situation following the presidential elections of October 2025, an event that marked a paradigmatic rupture in the nation's political history with the unprecedented exclusion of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) from the runoff election and the triumph of Rodrigo Paz Pereira, a center-right candidate. The study examines the underlying causal factors behind the MAS's unprecedented electoral decline after nearly two decades of hegemony, emphasizing political dimensions as variables in this reconfiguration. The central hypothesis is that the decline of the MAS project resulted from a convergence of political and economic tensions, with the implosion of Evo Morales's leadership

- accentuated by his political return after 2019 and the absence of internal institutional renewal - constituting one of the most determining political factors. This leadership crisis, articulated with severe macroeconomic contraction, precipitated a pragmatic shift in popular voting toward a proposal promising institutional change and economic stability. The analysis also examines the implications of this new political scenario, identifying the possible programmatic axes of the Paz-Lara administration in a context of legislative fragmentation that demands inter-party consensus.